Dive Brief:

• A panel of economists in the Zillow Home Price Expectations (ZHPE) Survey said they expect U.S. housing markets and the country’s overall economy to take a hit if either Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump are elected president this fall.
• The economists in the Zillow survey said a President Trump or President Sanders would constrain the expected 4% year-over-year home price appreciation.
• "Centrist" presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and John Kasich, Zillow said, would have the most positive effect on housing projection figures, according to the survey.

Dive Insight:

Survey respondents called Sanders' democratic socialism and Trump's unpredictability "polarizing" and a possible detriment to the economy. In a Construction Dive survey late last year asking readers which candidate would be best for the construction industry, Sanders won by far, with Trump in second place. Readers favoring Sanders cited his $1 trillion infrastructure plan, and those choosing Trump pointed to his business experience and history in the construction and real estate sectors.

Politics aside, 50% of economists in the Zillow survey said they believe that home appreciation is mainly due to low inventory, and more than 60% rejected the notion that low interest rates are the drivers behind rising prices. 

Tight inventory and the resulting price growth has been an ongoing story in the residential market. During a National Association of Realtors event earlier this month, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun encouraged homebuilders to ramp up production of starter homes amid low inventory. In a recent NAR report, the association found the median price for an existing single-family home rose in 87% of the markets the NAR surveyed. The association also found that the national median existing single-family home price increased 6.3% from a year ago to $217,600.

Additionally, CoreLogic, in its latest Home Price Index report, found that home prices increased 2.1% between February and March and 6.7% between March 2015 and March 2016. CoreLogic also predicted home prices will increase 0.7% between March and April and 5.3% between March 2016 and March 2017.