Each Monday, we'll let you know what's coming in the week ahead, including important residential and commercial report releases, as well as our feature articles.
Homebuilder confidence report — Jan. 19
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index will be released on Tuesday, Jan. 19. Last month, the NAHB announced the index dipped one point in December to a score of 61 after falling three points the previous month. The results came in lower than expected, as economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted the index would rise one point to 63.
Despite the slight dip, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said the fact that the index has lingered in the low 60s for the last seven months "is in line with a gradual, consistent recovery."
As the first in the wave of housing market reports, the builder confidence report will signal how the residential industry views current and future prospects.
Stadium construction feature article — Jan. 19
Sports arena construction projects have been seeing high-profile controversies and problems recently, such as the $15 million change order dispute between the Minnesota Sports Facilities Authority and Mortenson Construction for Vikings stadium, and the lawsuit filed against the planned $1 billion Golden State Warriors arena — which will be built by Clark Construction and Mortenson Construction — claiming the team’s 18,064-seat arena, which will be located across the street from a hospital, does not adequately address traffic, air quality or noise concerns.
In our feature article on Tuesday, Jan. 19, we ask experts in the sports venue construction field if these kinds of projects are inherently prone to more problems, or if their high-profile status just shines a brighter light on the same issues faced by all large construction projects.
Housing starts data — Jan. 20
The Commerce Department will release housing starts data for December on Wednesday, Jan. 20. Last month, the department announced housing starts had surged 10.5% in November to a 1.17 million annualized rate. Multifamily housing starts led November's gains, as the segment saw an increase of 18.1%. Single-family also had an impressive showing, with a 7.6% bump in November.
The strong results were a welcome reprieve after the steep decline in housing starts in October, when new home construction plummeted 11%. November's report was "the latest sign the housing market is gaining momentum despite the prospect of higher mortgage rates," The Wall Street Journal said.
Will Wednesday's results offer positive news for the housing market?
AIA billings index — Jan. 20
The American Institute of Architects will release its Architectural Billings Index on Wednesday, Jan. 20. Last month, the AIA reported the index fell to 49.3 in November, down from 53.1 in October. The November score marked a decline in design services, as any score above 50 signals an increase in billings.
AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker said the steep dip in November "could reflect the uncertainty of moving ahead with projects given the continued tightness in construction financing and the growing labor shortage problem gripping the entire design and construction industries."
The ABI is a significant report for the commercial construction industry, as it serves as an indicator of future construction spending — with a lead time of about nine to 12 months — as design services lead to new commercial projects.
International Builders' Show coverage — Jan. 20-22
We'll be in Las Vegas this week to report from the International Builders' Show, which brings together more than 80,000 residential industry professionals. Keep an eye out for updates, interviews and in-depth features throughout the week.
The event will cover all aspects of the homebuilding industry, especially design trends, homebuyer preferences, new technology innovations and market outlooks. We'll be attending expert panel sessions, interviewing experts from the NAHB and TRI Pointe Homes, and checking out the coolest products on the show floor.
High school vocational tech programs feature article — Jan. 21
The construction labor shortage has been the biggest problem plaguing the construction industry. A significant portion of employees who left the industry during the recession never returned, and companies are still struggling to find workers at all levels to properly staff their teams. The labor crisis is not a new issue, and most experts predict it will continue well into 2016 and beyond, as the talent deficit will require multiple years to fill up again.
Due to the labor crisis, some industry groups and professionals have focused their attention on attracting a new generation of workers to the construction trade. In our feature article on Thursday, Jan. 21, we speak with educators and advocates in the vocational tech field to find out if there's a resurgence in vocational programs at the high school level and, if so, how they could affect the construction industry skilled labor pipeline for years to come.
Existing home sales — Jan. 22
The National Association of Realtors will release its December existing home sales data on Friday, Jan. 22. Last month, the NAR reported existing home sales plunged 10.5% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million. November's rate marked a 19-month low, as all four regions saw sales declines between October and November.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed a significant portion of November's sales numbers to the new Know Before You Owe rule, which is a regulation that came into effect in October with the goal of simplifying homebuying paperwork. According to Yun, the new rule led to longer closing times as some lenders and closing companies are taking more caution when selling homes.
Apart from the effect of the new regulations, Yun also cited the ongoing concerns of "sparse inventory and affordability issues," which he said "continue to impede a large pool of buyers' ability to buy."
Will Friday's report offer a welcome rebound after such a steep decline last month, or will the bad news keep coming?