Dive Brief:

• The Dodge Momentum Index, a benchmark that measures nonresidential building planning, jumped 3% in September due to gains primarily in education, life sciences and healthcare, according to the Dodge Construction Network.
• September’s jump means the index, which peaked in December 2022 and typically leads actual construction spending by 12 months, has finally reversed a six-month streak of contractions. Still, the DMI remains about 5% lower than the previous year.
• “Solid demands for data centers, life science labs and hospitals supported the uptick in nonresidential planning activity last month,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. “While month-to-month trends can be volatile, year-to-date trends show an overall decrease in commercial planning, offset by more institutional projects entering the queue.”

Dive Insight:

If financial conditions improve in early 2024, steady planning activity should follow too, said Martin.

But lingering high interest rates, continued supply chain snarls and tighter lending standards are likely to continue to weigh on the commercial segment, including office, retail and warehouse projects.

In September, weaker office planning drove the commercial segment of the DMI down by 1%, according to the report. It’s down 12% year over year. 

The institutional sector, which encompasses education, life sciences and healthcare projects, has been largely resistant thus far to these market headwinds, said Martin.

For example, life sciences and healthcare activity boosted institutional planning by 9% in September, according to Dodge. Year-over-year, the institutional segment has jumped 12% since September 2022.

ABI still negative

Meanwhile, the Architectural Billings Index, which also provides a leading indicator for upcoming construction work that’s nine to 12 months out, dropped 3.8%, according to the most recent data from the American Institute of Architects. That softening marks the eleventh consecutive month where billings have been essentially flat or down at architecture firms, according to the report.

A total of 20 projects valued at $100 million or more entered the planning stages in September, according to Dodge. The largest commercial projects included:

• The $400 million Platform 16 office development in San Jose, California.
• The $230 million Waterford Millstone Data Center in Waterford, Connecticut.

The largest institutional projects to enter planning included:

• The $927 million UC San Diego Research Park in San Diego, California.
• Phases three and four of the Kilroy Oyster Point Life Sciences Complex in San Francisco, California, valued at a total of $634 million.